{"id":7551,"date":"2011-09-17T12:57:19","date_gmt":"2011-09-17T19:57:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/?p=7551"},"modified":"2023-02-01T07:06:19","modified_gmt":"2023-02-01T14:06:19","slug":"reno-air-race-crash-shameless-speculation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/?p=7551","title":{"rendered":"Air-Minded: Reno Speculation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Two words: holy shit!<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"reno_1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/halfmind\/31431042723\/in\/dateposted-public\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/c4.staticflickr.com\/1\/764\/31431042723_1850577f4b_z.jpg\" alt=\"reno_1\" width=\"640\" height=\"455\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In the aftermath of an airplane crash all manner of misinformation hits the news.&nbsp; It&#8217;s even worse if there are a lot of witnesses.&nbsp; You&#8217;d think it would be otherwise, but people are in general terrible witnesses, especially when they see something shocking and violent, something that happens in the blink of an eye.<\/p>\n<p>Last night and again this morning, in the wake of yesterday&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/09\/18\/us\/reno-air-show-crash.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P-51 crash at the Reno Air Races<\/a>, TV, radio, and newspapers were quoting witnesses stating that the pilot &#8220;spun out of control,&#8221; that he &#8220;wobbled his wings first,&#8221; that he deliberately &#8220;steered the plunging aircraft away from crowds.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Eyewitness reports like these are almost always mistaken.&nbsp; When witnesses use phrases like &#8220;spun out of control&#8221; or &#8220;wobbled his wings,&#8221; they usually mean something quite different from what a pilot means by spin, out of control, or wobble.<\/p>\n<p>The accident sequence, from the instant the pilot pulls up out of the race to the instant he hits the tarmac, lasts 8 seconds.&nbsp; When you watch the videos that have been released so far (<a href=\"http:\/\/youtu.be\/ndd9PVDM3jU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/youtu.be\/zusClmg4IQg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>), it&#8217;s clear the pilot didn&#8217;t try to avoid anything &#8230; far from it, he plunged into a seating area in a near-vertical dive.&nbsp; There&#8217;s no &#8220;wobble,&#8221; no &#8220;spin.&#8221;&nbsp; In the first video, in fact, the aircraft appears to be in controlled flight.<\/p>\n<p>Until the crash is investigated and a cause determined, we won&#8217;t know what happened &#8230; the airplane could have had mechanical or control problems, the pilot could have lost consciousness from excessive G forces or experienced some other physiological crisis.&nbsp; But I can&#8217;t resist a little shameless speculation.<\/p>\n<p>First, there&#8217;s this, a still photo of the aircraft just before impact:<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"reno_2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/halfmind\/31431042583\/in\/dateposted-public\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/c8.staticflickr.com\/1\/379\/31431042583_470d3aaaf4_z.jpg\" alt=\"reno_2\" width=\"495\" height=\"640\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And this, a photo of the same aircraft taken earlier:<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"reno_3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/halfmind\/31431042523\/in\/dateposted-public\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/c4.staticflickr.com\/1\/504\/31431042523_6f8a3f9bfe_z.jpg\" alt=\"reno_3\" width=\"600\" height=\"399\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>You can&#8217;t help noticing the pilot&#8217;s helmeted head in the bottom photo, right in the center of the canopy.&nbsp; Those Mustang cockpits are small to begin with, and when they modify these old fighters for racing they replace the normal canopies with tiny little teardrop bubbles.&nbsp; If the pilot sits in any sort of normal position, his or her head is going to be visible.&nbsp; Does the top photo, then, suggest a problem?<\/p>\n<p>Then there&#8217;s this, another still photo taken as the aircraft rolled invented, just before it pulled down toward the ground:<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"reno_4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/halfmind\/31431042493\/in\/dateposted-public\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/c6.staticflickr.com\/1\/317\/31431042493_0fce97484e_z.jpg\" alt=\"reno_4\" width=\"640\" height=\"527\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In this photo, you can see a puff of smoke coming from the belly of the Mustang behind the cockpit area, and you can also see the trim tab is missing from the left horizontal stabilizer. &nbsp;I don&#8217;t know if losing a trim tab on a P-51 flying at 450-500 miles per hour is enough to override the pilot&#8217;s muscle power on the stick &#8230; I sort of doubt it, but clearly something is going on with the flight controls.&nbsp; And what about that smoke?<\/p>\n<p>Last night, in the immediate aftermath of the crash, everyone thought the pilot was 80 years old.&nbsp; On the Rachel Maddow Show, where the crash got nearly a half-hour of coverage, Rachel and her guests avoided speculating on age as a contributing factor but still managed to mention that erroneous age, oh, about 300 times.&nbsp; On Twitter, people weren&#8217;t at all shy about making the connection: &#8220;YGBSM pilot was effing 80 yrs old?&#8221; was a typical tweet.<\/p>\n<p>This morning we learned the pilot was actually 74.&nbsp; Still pretty damn old, and you know people are going to start calling for age limits on pilot licenses, particularly if it turns out this pilot blacked out out under G loads or had a heart attack.<\/p>\n<p>Until very recently, airline pilots had to retire at age 60.&nbsp; Today the age limit is 65.&nbsp; But if you&#8217;re not flying airliners, there really is no upper age limit.&nbsp; You can fly as long as you&#8217;re fit to fly.&nbsp; Pilots have to pass an FAA medical examination every year or two, and without a current medical certificate they can&#8217;t fly, so it&#8217;s not like the system doesn&#8217;t police itself.&nbsp; In fact, the famous air show stunt pilot Bob Hoover was <a href=\"http:\/\/ct-divorce.com\/hoover2.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">medically grounded in 1992 by the FAA<\/a>, when Hoover was 72.&nbsp; Hoover, by the way, also flew a Mustang in close proximity to crowds at air shows.<\/p>\n<p>Still, you know there are going to be calls to ground all pilots over, say, 65 years of age.&nbsp; Not to mention calls to ban air racing altogether.&nbsp; I can&#8217;t help thinking of <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Jimmy_Doolittle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jimmy Doolittle<\/a>, the most famous air racer ever, who in 1932 at the age of 36, having won the three biggest prizes of international aviation &#8212; the Schneider, Bendix, and Thompson Trophies &#8212; retired from air racing, saying &#8220;I have yet to hear anyone engaged in this work dying of old age.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Unlike Formula One or Indy Car racing, where team owners hire fit young men to race for them, in air racing the team owners themselves do the racing.&nbsp; Most of these men are older, having gotten into warbird collecting and flying after long and successful business careers, and there is a lot of ego involved.&nbsp; I&#8217;m glad to hear the pilot who crashed yesterday was only 74; but I must admit that when his age was reported as 80 in the immediate aftermath of the crash I was not a bit surprised.&nbsp; Unless you&#8217;re a Saudi prince, you don&#8217;t amass the kind of money it takes to buy, rebuild, and maintain a WWII warbird when you&#8217;re in your 20s or 30s.&nbsp; It&#8217;s a sport for rich old men.<\/p>\n\n\n<p><em>\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/?page_id=14450\"><strong> back to the Air-Minded Index<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two words: holy shit! In the aftermath of an airplane crash all manner of misinformation hits the news.&nbsp; It&#8217;s even worse if there are a lot of witnesses.&nbsp; You&#8217;d think it would be otherwise, but people are in general terrible witnesses, especially when they see something shocking and violent, something that happens in the blink [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1960,10,3,16],"tags":[266,265,264,268,263,267],"class_list":["post-7551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-air-minded","category-current-events","category-flying","category-media","tag-air-racing","tag-air-show","tag-crash","tag-eyewitness-reports","tag-p-51","tag-reno-air-races"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7551"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7551\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32768,"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7551\/revisions\/32768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwoodford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}